The Senate Outlook


I agree with what David French has to say about Senator Kamala Harris’s promise to act unilaterally on immigration if she’s elected president. I think his opening comment, though, is wrong. He writes, The odds are heavily stacked against Democrats’ retaking the Senate. . . Heavily? At the moment I’d say that the three seats most likely to flip in the election are in Alabama, Arizona, and Colorado. If they all do, Republicans keep the Senate. But it’s not hard to see a scenario where Republicans screw up Alabama again and lose North Carolina too. Even Texas, getting bluer by the year, could be a real fight for John Cornyn.

In 2016, every Senate race went to the party that won the state’s electoral votes in the presidential contest. My guess is that whichever party wins the White House will win the Senate too, albeit narrowly.

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Update: I edited this to fix a dumb mistake.

Ramesh Ponnuru is a senior editor for National Review, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a senior fellow at the National Review Institute.

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